President Obama stated in news conferences in early 2009 the stimulus program will CREATE an estimated 3.5 million new jobs by the end of 2010 and unemployment should stay below 8.0%. According to the U.S. Labor Department the unemployment rate over the past few months is meandering between 9.7% and 10.2% and is expected to stay near 10.0% in 2010.
The Administration believes approximately 2.5 million jobs have been created or saved since the implementation of the $787 billion stimulus program in February 2009, but the GAO and other reputable organizations question the accuracy of the numbers and believe the numbers are inflated. Even the Administration admits most of the 2.5 million jobs they are referring to are jobs that were saved, not created.
If we assume approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of the 2.5 million jobs, or about 1 million jobs, are new jobs, and the stimulus impact is waning, then it appears the most we can hope for are another 0.5 million new jobs by the end of 2010, providing an estimate of 1.5 million new jobs, not the 3.5 million new jobs projected by Obama.
Also, economists across the country are predicting annual deficits in the range of $1.0 trillion to $1.5 trillion for the next ten years. The current deficit for FY 2010, which ends on September 30, 2010, is projected to be on the order of $1.3 trillion to $1.6 trillion.
The domestic priority should be creating millions of new jobs. Other domestic initiatives including health care reform should wait until the economy improves. The administration and Congress have to cut business taxes and give US companies incentives to operate in this country and disincentives to move operations and jobs overseas.
Donald A. Moskowitz,