| Russia could be more powerful than all of OPEC considering the possibility of oil and gas discovery in the rest of Siberia. That acknowledgement was made by Dr. Julio Leon, president of Missouri Southern State University in his opening remarks prior to introducing the keynote speaker at the Regional Economic Summit held on campus, April 27, 2007.
Leon referred to an exchange agreement that had been made in the fall of 2006 with Natalia Maslova, a representative from Ugra State University located in Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra. He said that this region of Russia is where 50% of Russia's natural resources lie, and that they were responsible for the area's rapid development, including the establishment of the university.
On the other hand, with the U.S. dependence on foreign energy and with other economic factors, he called attention to the unfortunate loss of 700 jobs due to the closure of O'Sullivan Industries in neighboring Lamar, and said that remaining U.S. companies were very likely to suffer the same fate because of their inability to compete with foreign competition specifically from China.
As a panacea, Leon said, "We need to hear the global picture on issues." He described the role of the university and its first regional economic development summit as an important venue for bringing together all the parties involved in economic development in the region.
A senior vice president of the bi-partisan Washington, D.C. think tank, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Dr. Erik Peterson took the podium to discuss his "7 Revolutions," an internationally renowned presentation that asks the question 'What will our world look like in 2025, and how should we start preparing for it now? The "7 Revolutions" that he examines are 1) population and demographics; 2) resource management; 3) technology innovation and diffusion (data movement); 4) information and knowledge; 5) global economic integration; 6) conflict; and 7) governance.
In calling attention to the threats of non-proliferation and bird flu, Peterson said,"No one could have predicted the complexities of today." But in dealing with them he believes that we need to be more proficient.
The questions he asks are "to what extent are we able to create a better environment around us" and "is this more dangerous world beyond our capacity to control"
Peterson, pictured right, came to the Center from Kissinger Associates, where he was director of research. He holds an M.B.A. in international finance from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, an M.A. in international law and economics from the School of Advanced International Studies at the Johns Hopkins University, and a B.A. from Colby College. He holds the Certificate of Eastern European Studies from the University of Fribourg in Switzerland and the Certificate in International Legal Studies from The Hague Academy of International Law in the Netherlands. For the past seven years, Mr. Peterson has co-taught a course on global trends at the Schreyer Honors College at Pennsylvania State University. He has also lectured on international economics and finance and geopolitical risk at many colleges and universities, including Chapman and George Mason Universities, Georgia Tech, and the Wharton School. Currently, he is a member of the Global Risk Network of the World Economic Forum, aboard member of the Center for Global Business Studies at the Pennsylvania State University, and a member of the Advisory Board of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. In September 2006, in recognition of his achievements at the Center, Mr. Peterson was named by the CSIS Board of Trustees as its 2006-2007 Trustees Fellow.
In terms of population and demographics, Peterson said the population is predicted to reach 7.9 billion by the year 2025, 77 million in growth every year or 2.4 people born every second. He attributed the poorest countries with the highest growth and said that the expansion of an aging population is without parallel in the history of humanity. A new paradigm, he said, would create a dependency on a younger population with developing nations acting as an incubator for youth as a threat to stability.
This population explosion, he said, will necessitate a stewardship of critical resources with double the global food production needed by 2025 (820 million people already are chronically undernourished).
He sees a shortage of arable land and the need to double the water supply for the predicted population growth and calls for 2.5 billion people to be without water by 2025.
Energy and infrastructure demands, he says, will require an expenditure of $20 trillion. With the developing world already increasing its demands for oil by 62%, he cites a Goldman Sachs thesis that concludes that the economies of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are shifting the balance of global production to overtake the G.6 countries.
In discussing global information and knowledge flows, he talked in exabytes (computer storage equal to one quintillion bytes) with the capacity for technological information doubling every two years. He sees less time for making complicated decisions and a wider gap between those proficient and those cast aside and between those rich, 225 for every 2.7 billion who are poor. "How we choose our truth has tremendous implications," he said.
Regarding conflict between countries, terrorist tactics are a new standard for success. He sees the growth of bioterrorism with the need to retrofit the sources of ricin and anthrax and the challenge of governance to deal with nuclear and radiological threats. "Non-proliferation is fraying at booth ends," he said.
With corporations controlling the GNP, he believes that they have to define what they stand for. Donations from the Gates Foundation exceeded those of the World Health Organization, he said. Therefore, he sees the need to tie in corporations, education and government.
He asks what will our capacity be? Hyper promise or hyper peril? With the dissolution of leadership and an epidemic of shortsightedness he looks for lifting the consciousness of leaders and more inspiration at regional levels. He sees the need to be "future literate" and to achieve what he calls a greater investment in education and the inculcation of a culture of strategic thinking. "We need to shed this 'Dancing with Stars' culture," he says.
When asked if he and his fellow theorists had stiff competition with that of the promoters of a nation of sheep, he replied, "Yes, we do."
The first bi-annual economic summit focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of Southeast Kansas, Southwest Missouri, Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas was organized by the Regional Economic Development Center, a not-for-profit agency, under the direction of Dr. Thomas W. Simpson, that acts as a catalyst in addressing regional issues. Breakout sessions involved discussions on sustainability, the arts, public policy, education, natural resources use, and retirement.
In the summary session, "What Have We Learned?", Rob O'Brian, president of the Joplin Area Chamber of Commerce, said that while 23 years ago the perception of economic development was "smokestack chasing," today it is much more complex. The requirements of cheap land and a labor force have been joined by the quality of education, the appearance of the community, the status of health care and criteria on an endless list.
Senator Dave Bisbee, (R-Rogers, AR) said we "make good F18 pilots but not great F18s." He said that tradesmen--"bricklayers, electricians and plumbers--need basic intelligence." We are falling behind, he said, because of a "lack of creativity."
Now that we've gotten everyone together, Clay Kubicek, educational director of Crossland Construction, would like to see more of a sense of urgency rather than everyone talking about the same goals. Cooperation is a good goal but it should be more than a "buzzword," he concluded.
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